Nzvimbo Dzinonyanya Kukurumbira Mumatransformer Epasi Rose Epakati Neakakwira (2025-2026)

1. Kuvandudzwa kweMaitiro Ekushandisa Simba Zvakanaka uye Kuchinja Kwenzvimbo: Kugadziriswa Kwesimba Idzva seMusimboti

Pasi rose, zvinodiwa pakushandisa simba zvakanaka kwepakati nepakati Transformer yeHigh VoltageZviri kuwedzera, uye kushaikwa kwemitemo yekushandisa simba zvakanaka pakugadzira simba idzva kwave chinhu chinonyanya kurwadza mumakore achangopfuura. Muna Kubvumbi 2024, China yakaburitsa vhezheni itsva yeMinimum Allowable Values ​​of Energy Efficiency and Energy Efficiency Grades for Power Transformers (GB20052-2024), iyo yakatanga kushandiswa zviri pamutemo muna Kukadzi 2025. Kekutanga, chiyero ichi chinosanganisira ma transformers e6kV-66kV ekugadzira simba idzva (photovoltaic, wind power, energy storage)​ mumitemo yekushandiswa kwesimba zvakanaka, ichifukidza mamiriro emagetsi makuru ekubatanidza grid itsva yesimba (semuenzaniso, ma transformers e35kV anonyudzwa mumafuta/akaoma anodarika 95% yekushandiswa muchikamu chitsva chesimba).

Chinangwa chikuru chekuvandudzwa kwesimba remagetsi ndechekuderedza kurasikirwa kwemagetsi kubva kumagetsi matsva. Tichitora ma transformer e35kV anonyudzwa mumafuta semuenzaniso, kurasikirwa kwesimba remagetsi reGiredhi 3 pasina mutoro kwaderera ne30% zvichienzaniswa neshanduro yekare (GB6451-2015), uye kushanda kwesimba reGiredhi 1 kwaderera neimwe 10%; kurasikirwa kwesimba remagetsi re35kV dry-type transformers (Giredhi 3) pasina mutoro kwaderera ne20% zvichienzaniswa nechiyero cheindasitiri (NB/T31062-2014). Sekureva kwefungidziro, kana ma transformer matsva ese esimba muChina akavandudzwa kubva pagiredhi reS11 kuenda kugiredhi reS20, kuburitswa kwecarbon kunogona kuderedzwa nematani mamiriyoni makumi mashanu nemashanu, zvakaenzana ne2.8 nguva yekugadzira simba reGezhouba Hydropower Station muna 2021.

Kushandiswa kwemutemo uyu hakungobatsiri chete kushandurwa kweindasitiri yetransformer yeChina kuenda kukushanda zvakanaka uye kushoma kwekabhoni asi kunopawo hurongwa hwakakosha hwekubatanidza grid itsva yesimba pasi rose.

1. Kudiwa kweSmart Grid neAI: Solid-State Transformers (SSTs) Dzinova Chizvarwa Chinotevera

Nekukwira kwesimba reAI computing (semuenzaniso, kudzidzisa mamodheru makuru eChatGPT anoshandisa magetsi akawanda mumazuva matatu semota dzeTesla dzinosvika zviuru zvitatu dzichifamba makiromita mazana matatu nemakumi maviri ezviuru) uye kukurumidza kwekuvakwa kwegridi yakangwara, matransformer echinyakare haachakwanise kusangana nezvinodiwa zvesimba rakawanda uye dynamic regulation. Matransformer eSolid-state (SSTs), ane mabhenefiti madiki, kushanda zvakanaka, uye rutsigiro rwekufamba kwesimba remativi maviri, ave chinhu chinonyanya kutariswa mukutsvaga kwetekinoroji uye kutariswa kwemusika munguva pfupi yapfuura.

MaSST anoshandisa tekinoroji yekushandura magetsi ine simba remafrequency akawanda. Kana tichienzanisa nematransformer ekare eindasitiri, anoderedza vhoriyamu ne50%-80% uye huremu ne60%-80%, uye anogona kuwana millisecond-level dynamic voltage regulation uye constant voltage output, zvichiita kuti anyatsokodzera zviitiko zvakaita seAI data centers, new energy grid connection, uye ultra-fast charging stations. Semuenzaniso, bepa jena razvino reNVIDIA rinoronga maSST semhinduro inosarudzwa ye medium-voltage direct supply mudata centers, uye makambani akaita seJinpan Technology akapedza kugadzira maSST prototypes uye akatumira samples kuNVIDIA.

Kunyangwe maSST achiri muchikamu chekuongorora mhando/madiki (anotarisirwa kutengeswa zvakanyanya kubva muna 2028 kusvika 2030), tarisiro yemusika yakakura - mushumo wekutsvagisa weGuangda Securities unoratidza kuti maSST anotarisirwa kuva budiriro mumatambudziko emagetsi anofambiswa nemavhiri maviri e "AI + simba idzva," nehukuru hwemusika huchikura kubva pamabhiriyoni matanhatu eyuan muna 2024 kusvika pamabhiriyoni makumi maviri nematanhatu nemana eyuan muna 2027 (CAGR yeinenge 64%).

1. Kushomeka Kwezvekushandisa Pasi Rose uye Mabhenefiti EkuChina: Kudzora Kwakazvimirira Kwemaindasitiri Akazara Kwava Kukwikwidzana Kukuru​

Pasi rose, ma transformer emagetsi epakati nepakakwirira ari kutarisana nekushomeka kukuru kwemagetsi: musiyano wemagetsi emagetsi emagetsi muUnited States wakawedzera ne116% zvichienzaniswa negore ra2019, kuvandudzwa kwegrid muEurope kuri kufambira mberi zvishoma nezvishoma nekuda kwekushomeka kwema transformer, uye mapurojekiti makuru ezuva muIndia haasi kushanda panguva yekumirira ma transformer. Pasinei neizvi, China, ine 60% yesimba rekugadzira pasi rose, ndiyo yave iyo inonyanya kubatsirwa.

Zvakanakira zvikuru zveChina mu transformers zviri mukugona kudzorwa kwakazvimirira kweindasitiri yese:

Zvinhu Zvikuru: Kugadzirwa kwesimbi yesilicon (chinhu chinonzi "moyo" chetransformers) kwakasvika matani mamiriyoni 3.0325 (2024), kashanu kupfuura Japan uye kasere kupfuura United States. Baosteel Group yakagadzira tambo chete yepasi rose yesimbi yesilicon ine 0.18mm yakatetepa, ichishanda zvakanaka kupfuura dzimwe dzose pasi rose;

Tekinoroji uye Kugona: China Electrical Equipment Group yakabatanidza makambani akaita seXD, Baobian, neShandong Electrical Engineering kuti vagadzire huwandu hwakazara hwe "UHV + simba idzva". Makambani akazvimirira akadai seXinjiang Tebian naJiangsu Huapeng anotungamira pasi rose mukutumira kunze kwenyika matransformer matsva esimba;

Kushanda Nesimba Pakutumira: Kutenderera kwekutumira matransformer muChina (semuenzaniso, mwedzi gumi yematransformer makuru eUHV) kupfupika zvikuru pane kweEurope neUnited States (kupfuura mwedzi gumi nemisere), uye mitengo yakaderera (zvigadzirwa zvakafanana zvinodarika hafu yemutengo wezvekuEurope neAmerica).

Kubva muna Ndira kusvika Nyamavhuvhu 2025, kukosha kwekutengesa transformer kunze kwenyika kweChina kwakasvika 29.711 bhiriyoni yuan, kuwedzera kwegore negore kwe36.3%, musika wekuEurope uchikwira ne138%. Vamwe vatengi vanoda kubhadhara premium ye20% kuti vave nechokwadi chekuti vanowana zvinhu.

1. Kubudirira Kwetekinoroji uye Kuvandudza Maindasitiri: UHV neMhepo yeOffshore seNzvimbo Dzakakosha​

Munguva pfupi yapfuura, mabhizinesi ekuChina akabudirira zvikuru mukuvandudza tekinoroji muUHV nemagetsi emhepo ari kunze kwenyika pamwe chete nedzimwe nzvimbo dzemagetsi epamusoro-soro, zvichikurudzira kuvandudzwa kwemaindasitiri:

Matransformer eUHV: Transformer yeShenbian Company ine simba re±800kV UHV DC inoshandiswa kuchirongwa cheJinshang-Hubei UHV inovandudza mazinga ekudzivirira magetsi padivi penetwork ne5%; Transformer yegenerator yeXidian Xibian ye1000kV UHV inoita kuti mapurojekiti emagetsi emagetsi anoshandisa marasha ashande panguva yakakodzera;

Matransformer eMagetsi eMhepo ari Kunze kweMhepo: Kambani yeShenbian yakatanga transformer yekutanga pasi rose ye20Hz yemhepo iri kunze kweMhepo ine simba remhepo riri pasi pemvura, yakagadziriswa kuti ishande nemagridi ane simba remhepo riri pasi pemvura, ichideredza kurasikirwa kwemagetsi ne15%-20%, uye yakashandiswa kupurazi remhepo rekunze kweMhepo reHuaene Yuhuan Phase II;

MaTransformer Akangwara: Shandong Electrical Engineering Equipment Company yakagadzira transformer diki ine mavhiri matatu ye220kV, iyo inoderedza kushandiswa kwesimbi kuburikidza nekugadzirisa zvivakwa (semuenzaniso, chimiro chekusimbisa matangi) uye inovandudza kushanda zvakanaka kwekubatanidza ne35%, nemazinga ekushandisa simba achipfuura mwero wenyika.

1. Hupfumi Hwakatenderera uye Kugadzira Patsva: Nzira Itsva Yekushandura Zvisikwa Zvegirini​

Nekufambira mberi kwehurongwa hwe "dual carbon", kugadzirwa patsva kwetransformer kwave chinhu chitsva chinokwezva muindasitiri. TBEA (Hunan) Energy Construction Co., Ltd. inoshandisa "digital nerve implantation" (intelligent sensing chips) uye "organ regeneration" (coil insulation renewal, insulating oil deep dialysis) kushandura matransformer e220kV asina kushanda kuita michina ine simba rinoshanda kupfuura mwero weGrade 1 wenyika. Mutengo wacho i60% chete yezvigadzirwa zvitsva, uye unit imwe chete yakagadzirwazve inogona kuchengetedza 70% yemari yekutenga uye kudzoreredza nguva yekuvaka inokosha.

Modhi iyi haingoderedzi chete mari yekuvandudza grid asiwo inoderedza marara ezviwanikwa—zvichienderana nefungidziro, kudzikiswa kwemhepo inoburitsa kabhoni kubva panzvimbo yekugadzirazve kwakaenzana nekudyara zviuru zvemaeka emasango, zvichienderana negwara rekusimudzira "hupfumi hwakatenderera."